US Employment Report Preview Labour demand cooling We expect the March employment report to show that the labour market was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil, with non-farm payrolls rising by a more modest 200,000 and annual wage growth... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Banking stress adds to downside risks Acute bank stress will prompt a further tightening in credit conditions, which leaves us even more convinced that the economy will fall into recession this year. With core inflation remaining stickier... 29th March 2023 · 24 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed raises interest rates but signals pause after banking turmoil Andrew Hunter, deputy chief US economist at Capital Economics, said that the economy had been at high risk of recession this year anyway. This economic weakness was “likely to accelerate the downward... 23rd March 2023 · The Times
US Economics Update Fed plays for time with dovish hike The 25bp rate hike and new projections unveiled by the Fed today were towards the more dovish end of potential outcomes. Despite recent strong economic data, officials acknowledged the likely hit from... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Crisis easing, but economic damage yet to be felt Recent data suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was mostly sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter, payroll employment growth robust and... 22nd March 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Banking turmoil not (yet) enough to stop Fed hike Although the banking crisis appears to be far from over and new problems could yet emerge over the coming days, we still expect the Fed to push ahead with a 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The February industrial production data were marginally stronger than we had expected, with manufacturing output rising by a further 0.1% m/m following the 1.3% surge in January. But with the regional... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.4% m/m fall in retail sales in February only partly reversed the 3.2% surge in January, suggesting that real consumption growth will accelerate to at least 3.5% annualised in the first quarter... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.5% m/m rise in core consumer prices last month adds to the evidence that inflation remains stubbornly high, but the ongoing fallout from the SVB crisis over the coming days is still likely to... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
