US Economics Update Recession or economic resurgence? The unexpected surge in payroll employment in January has led to claims of an economic resurgence that will force the Fed to keep hiking interest rates but, on balance, we still think the real economy... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The December trade data show a rebound in both real exports and imports but, with those gains following steep declines in previous months and the surveys pointing to renewed weakness to come, the data... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to a weak H1 The surge in interest rates and tightening in credit conditions last year resulted in a broad-based plunge in loan demand in the fourth quarter. Most banks expect to continue tightening standards this... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly The opposite of stagflation The strength of the early January data appears to rule out the possibility of an imminent recession, but that won’t prevent inflation from continuing to fall sharply from here. 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The robust 517,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January means that, despite most leading indicators of recession flashing red, the economy is clearly not as close to recession as we had suspected... 3rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in January, from 48.4, suggests that the factory sector has yet to benefit from the improvements in manufacturing prospects in Europe and China... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jan.) Our tracking models now suggest the economy is more likely than not to be in recession in three months’ time, supporting the message from the latest surveys and hard activity data that GDP is likely... 31st January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown in jobs growth coming We expect a more modest 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January. The annual benchmark revisions may also show a sharper slowdown in employment growth over the second half of last year than... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) & Durable Goods (Dec.) The 2.9% annualised rise in fourth-quarter GDP was a little stronger than we had expected, but the mix of growth was discouraging, and the monthly data suggest the economy lost momentum as the fourth... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
