US Economics Update End of QT may come sooner than first thought While the Fed isn’t likely to follow the Bank of England in pausing QT in response to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields, the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet could end sooner and... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 263,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is another signal that labour market conditions are cooling. But with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.5% the report is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The further sharp decline in the trade deficit to $67.4bn in August, from $70.5bn, means that net exports provided a big boost to third-quarter GDP growth. But the twin drags from the surging dollar... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug.) & ADP Employment (Sep.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market is cooling The sharp fall in job openings in August will be welcomed by the Fed as a sign that labour market conditions are starting to move back into balance. That won’t prevent further aggressive interest rate... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown to come We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 275,000 in September, but a much sharper slowdown looks likely as the Fed’s aggressive tightening feeds through. 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m fall in durable goods orders in August wasn’t as bad as we expected and suggests that business equipment investment is, for now at least, still holding up in the face of surging interest... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker growth will bear down on inflation soon The economic data this week suggest that slowing activity growth isn’t yet putting downward pressure on core inflation, which is likely to see the Fed remain in hawkish mode at its meeting next week... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The stagnation in underlying retail sales in August suggests that plunging gasoline prices are not providing any significant boost to real consumption. But that could change over the coming months as... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
