US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The widening in the international trade deficit to $68.3bn in January, from $67.2bn, included big rebounds in both imports and exports which, at face value, add to the signs that demand is... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Powell testimony confirms higher peak in rates Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that interest rates are set to rise higher than we previously anticipated. But with most evidence still pointing to economic weakness and markedly lower... 7th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and payrolls to clarify rate outlook The February employment report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress next week should give a clearer indication of whether recent talk of interest rates going “higher for longer” is... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.7 in February, from 47.4, leaves it firmly in contractionary territory. That should temper talk of a manufacturing resurgence on the back of... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
US manufacturing sector still shrinking; raw material prices rebound "This is a potential concern to the extent that it signals that recent economic resilience is putting renewed upward pressure on inflation," said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital... 1st March 2023 · Reuters
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m rebound in core durable goods orders in January rounds off a month of strong activity releases and suggests business investment will hold up a bit better in the first quarter than we had... 27th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in activity growth likely to be short lived With markets responding to recent strong data by ramping up interest rate expectations, there doesn’t yet seem to be much need for the Fed to embark on a renewed hawkish turn. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack January strength unlikely to last The resurgence in activity and employment in January means that there is little chance of the economy falling into recession in the first quarter and we now expect GDP growth of 1.5% annualised. That... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in manufacturing output in January provides further evidence that the economy began the year on a strong footing. That said, while the survey evidence also appears to be turning a... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in January suggests that the downward trend in inflation is slowing. But we still expect the disinflationary process to re-accelerate soon, as easing shortages... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
