US Economics Weekly Fed hawks can’t compete with plunging inflation This week saw a renewed attempt from some Fed officials to push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts but, with core PCE inflation running at an annualised pace of below 2% over the... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The confirmation that core PCE prices rose by just 0.06% m/m in November means that, over the past six months, core inflation has been running at an annualised pace of just 1.9%. Adding in the further... 22nd December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed & markets catching up with inflation reality The Fed’s embrace of interest rate cuts next year is understandable when the latest data suggest that core PCE inflation is rapidly closing in on the 2% target. 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rebound in retail sales in November provides further illustration that the continued rapid decline in inflation is not coming at the cost of significantly weaker economic growth. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slightly stronger 0.28% m/m rise in core consumer prices in November suggests the Fed may be able to hang onto its tightening bias for a little longer, but sharper declines in inflation are still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Resurgence in labour force has further to run The resurgence in the labour force over the past year mainly reflects the ongoing boost to participation from increasing opportunities for women to combine parenthood with work, more young people... 11th December 2023 · 15 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets call the Fed's bluff on higher for longer The Fed may not be quite ready to abandon its tightening bias at this week’s FOMC meeting, but the markets are no longer buying its “higher for longer” mantra. The main factor behind the shift in... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon With markets already convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on any clues as to how soon and how far rates will be cut. We suspect officials... 6th December 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Despite strong growth, core inflation normalising This week’s modest upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth was certainly eye-catching. It suggests that the US economy is not just surviving the surge in interest rates over the last couple of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Post SVB bank lending holding up well The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global economy in 2024 – Key themes/core risks 5th December 2023, 8:00AM GMT A team of our senior economists recently held a special online briefing all about the key economic themes which will shape 2024. The team discussed risks across developed and emerging economies, and…
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 23) The economy’s third-quarter strength was not the start of a renewed acceleration and we continue to expect GDP growth to weaken. Regardless, resilient economic growth has not prevented a continued... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
