US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 353,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates why the Fed is apparently in no rush to start cutting interest rates and kills off any remaining chance of a cut as soon as March. Even if... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The solid rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in January, from 47.1, indicates that the downturn in the sector is fading and appears to justify the Fed’s view that it can wait a little... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest disinflation will continue The December JOLTS data show a continued painless normalisation in the labour market – with job openings on a downward trend, layoffs unusually low and wage growth set for a sharp slowdown. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Dec.) The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Could disinflation go too far? We argued last week that there was little to support the idea that the “last mile” of getting inflation back to 2% will somehow be the hardest. But new data on rent inflation released this week raise... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Dec.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in December may have been supported by the unseasonably mild weather, but it still means there is no sign that households are buckling under the pressure of higher... 17th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump faces first test in Iowa Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. But the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the primary season this coming Monday, should provide insight into... 12th January 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update State & local government spending boom set to end The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade. 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still coy about QT end-game The minutes of the mid-December FOMC meeting did not dissuade us that the Fed will start to cut interest rates from this March onwards. Despite now projecting more interest rate cuts this year, Fed... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: December CPI and the Fed’s 2024 path back to its 2% inflation target 11th January 2024, 3:00PM GMT Will inflation continue its retreat into 2024? When will the Fed start easing policy, and by how much will it cut rates over the coming year? Our US team held an online briefing on the December CPI...
