US Economics Weekly Protectionism seen as a vote winner by both parties In a campaign stop at a union headquarters this week, President Joe Biden called for a tripling of the tariffs on steel imports from China to 25%, from the current 7.5% rate, originally introduced by... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar.) The strong rise in retail sales in March and upward revision to February’s data will further support the Fed’s stance that there is no rush to start lowering interest rates. 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold until later this year The third consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in March, coming on the heels of the 303,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, fuelled fears that a pick-up in the real economy is now translating into a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inflation pressure from labour market continues to fade The February JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions are now easing at a more gradual pace, but that isn’t a surprise when most indicators of slack have already returned to pre-pandemic norms... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Port closure to have no significant effects on economy The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is... 28th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Feb.) The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that the strength of consumers... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Better inflation data needed for June rate cut Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still... 13th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
