US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2024) The 275,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February may, at face value, add weight to the Fed’s view that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates, but the downward revisions to previous months’... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2024) The January trade data point to a potentially larger drag on first-quarter GDP growth than we had assumed, albeit mainly because imports look to have been stronger than previously believed. 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to stick to his previous script in his testimony to Congress today and, assuming we are right that the January strength in core inflation will prove to be a blip, his... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rebound in money supply not an inflation threat Money growth remains weak but is rebounding steadily, with our broader M3 measure recovering to its strongest since mid-2022. But there is no reason to expect this to drive a rebound in inflation. 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and Biden to take centre stage Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week. But with the downward trend in core... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The unexpected fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February still leaves it on a gradual upward trend, but the more important news for the Fed is that there is still no sign that a material rebound... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth to slow despite strong payrolls We expect the February employment report to show that, despite a strong 250,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, wage growth is still on a downward trend. 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly PPI a kick in the teeth for inflation doves The much stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in core PPI in January came as a hammer blow for PCE estimates. Coming on the heels of the hot 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI, our calculations now... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bond vigilantes fiddle, as budget burns New projections released by the CBO this week show that although the Federal budget deficit is expected to be a bit smaller than previously assumed, it remains on an unsustainable path. Moreover, with... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Strong payrolls unlikely to reignite wage growth The strength of payroll employment growth over the past two months is likely to be a blip rather than the start of a renewed acceleration and the wider evidence still points to a further slowdown in... 8th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
Event US Drop-In: January CPI and the timing of the start of Fed easing 13th February 2024, 3:00PM GMT What does the recent data flow and Jerome Powell’s pushback mean for the timing of the first Fed rate cut? How quickly and easily will core inflation get back to target? How far will the Fed go to…
