Higher taxes for businesses and a lingering drag from the previous rises in interest rates will mean GDP grows by only 1.0% in 2025, by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. And it's only a matter of time before the recent weakening in the labour market eventually leads to slower wage growth and contributes to CPI inflation falling below 2.0% in 2027. We think that will allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4.25% now to 3.00% in 2026 rather than to 3.50% as investors anticipate.