Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia-Ukraine peace talks, CEE fiscal deficits The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine will be to... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget dispute, Russia-Ukraine and Africa, G20 South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the 2025 Budget in less than two weeks, but the past few days have only underlined the widening divide between the two main parties of the... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale... 27th February 2025 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 (Updated 1st May 2025) · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: What would a “dirty deal” for Russia-Ukraine mean? The US-Russia meeting this week to seek an end to the war in Ukraine has clearly raised the possibility that a peace deal is negotiated quickly and on terms more favourable to Russia (a so called... 21st February 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions on Europe’s defence spending European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
