Putin Has Options for Russian Gas After Ukraine Route Closed Russia will lose an equivalent of about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product, according to various analyst estimates. “The figures are too small to make a dent in Putin’s war machine,” David Oxley... 6th January 2025 · Bloomberg
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The natural gas market in the European winter 6th September 2023, 3:00PM BST A mild winter 2022/23 helped Europe dodge a bullet of high gas prices.
Energy Update Volatility a reminder scars remain in natural gas markets Price volatility in the wake of news of possible strike action at Australian LNG export terminals serves as a reminder that natural gas markets are still carrying the scars of Russia’s invasion of... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Sanctions, war and Russia's economy: what next? Russia’s economy has adapted to Western sanctions better than had been expected so far, but maintaining macroeconomic stability is now becoming more challenging and depends in large part on the... 13th July 2023 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s rebellion: bigger war, lower macro stability? The armed uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group against the Russian military over the weekend has dealt a heavy blow to President Putin and exposed cracks in the regime. There are a... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
China Economics Update China stands to lose not gain from war in Ukraine As Russia becomes increasingly isolated, it will lean more heavily on China as a trading partner. That will present some opportunities for Chinese firms to take market-share from western suppliers and... 2nd March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
