Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) A decline in tourism receipts caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen further on a 12-month basis in August and ongoing security concerns will keep tourism revenues subdued and the external... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Rising political risks threaten growth outlook The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a Trump victory mean for Asia? It remains to be seen if Donald Trump would follow through on some of his more protectionist policies if he is elected president of the United States. If he did, then the repercussions for some parts... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) While August’s industrial production and trade data provided a break from therecent run of positive data, the economy still appeared to weather the Brexit votebetter than most expected in Q3. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) The value of China’s FX reserves declined further last month, as the People’s Bank continued to intervene heavily to shore up the renminbi. With few signs that capital outflow pressures are abating... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact The upcoming Presidential election does not seem to be having much impact on economic activity either in the US itself or elsewhere. Admittedly, it looks at first sight as if recent movements in... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up Some analysts have argued that Egypt won’t devalue the pound until the country has a sustainable source of capital inflows, but we think this misses the point. The country is unlikely to experience a... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in August rounds off a good week of data for the Australian economy and suggests that GDP growth in the third quarter may have been stronger than the 0.5% q/q... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.) Although the trade deficit widened slightly to $40.7bn in August, from $39.5bn, net external trade is now on track to make a big contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. Elsewhere, the big rebound in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would President Trump mean for Japan? We wouldn’t be overly concerned about a US tariff on Japanese imports should Donald Trump become president, as Japanese manufacturers mostly serve their US customers from their US subsidiaries. By... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market hold back the economy? In contrast to the mostly upbeat data on the state of the economy after the Brexit vote, the housing market still appears to be cooling. But we don’t think house prices or transactions will fall too... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) Today’s Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments figures for Q2 showed that the economy was even more resilient ahead of the EU referendum than previously thought, although it remained... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
