US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to a near-decade high of $57.6bn in February, from $56.7bn, was entirely due to a one-off royalty payment for broadcasting rights to the Winter Olympics. But net... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) As Australia is more exposed than most other advanced economies to a further escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, the fall in its international trade surplus in February is... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Declaration of (trade) war? The speed and scale of China’s retaliation to the proposed US tariffs represents a significant escalation of tensions, though there is still plenty of time for a deal to be struck before tariffs come... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The likely consequences of escalating trade tensions Aside from equities in the US and China, those in Korea, Taiwan and South Africa appear particularly exposed to a further deterioration in Sino-American trade relations. And IT, consumer discretionary... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities down on protectionist fears Fears of a trade war between the US and China have weighed on Asian equities over the past month. In contrast, currency markets have been largely unaffected. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will trade fears dent growth? The recently announced US tariffs should have a limited direct effect on the UK economy. Admittedly, falls in equity prices – on the back of concerns over a full-blown trade war – could clearly have... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report next month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Currently, Thailand is the only country in... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Protectionist clouds gather As long as they aren’t followed by far more extensive trade sanctions than have been seen to date, the protectionist clouds looming over the global economy are unlikely to have a major bearing on... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attack on US soybean farmers would hurt China too China’s low-key response to last week’s tariff announcement by President Trump reflects in part a desire not to exacerbate tensions further. But Chinese officials will also be aware that, while they... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Why aren’t Treasuries benefiting from protectionism? Although US Treasuries might have been expected to benefit from the recent slump in the stock market, the 10-year yield has not changed much. By contrast, the 10-year German Bund yield has fallen... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Impact of KORUS changes is small Korea looks to have emerged from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) re-negotiations unscathed, but rising trade tensions between the US and China remain a threat to its export sector. 26th March 2018 · 3 mins read
