Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Final CPI (Aug.) July’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports were a drag on GDP growth at the start of Q3. Looking ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year as global demand growth... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account position improved by more than we’d expected in Q2, but the shortfall will still probably remain relatively wide over the coming year. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down The ECB’s decision last week not to announce an extension to its asset purchase programme led us to revise our year-end forecast for the euro exchange rate. But we still think that looser monetary... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (Jul.) The latest post-referendum official figures indicated that the construction sector held up better than expected in July, and the trade deficit narrowed, continuing the recent trend of relatively... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounced back in August After a slowdown in July, growth in China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in August. This was perhaps to be expected as July activity indicators were encouraging and the unofficial manufacturing... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) A pick-up in export growth points to some welcome improvement in external demand while the sharp recovery in import growth hints at stronger domestic demand. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul.) Even though the international trade deficit narrowed in July, net exports are still on course to remain a drag on real GDP growth in the third quarter. The external sector could really do with the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (July) The decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $2.5bn in July, from $4.0bn, is encouraging news for third-quarter GDP growth, although the improvement appears to be partly due to a seasonal... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: lots of talk but not much action Without a crisis to concentrate minds, G20 leaders meeting in Hangzhou are unlikely to make any major policy breakthroughs. The truth is that there is little appetite for coordinated policy action... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q2 16) In Q2 Danish GDP growth was worryingly dependent on external demand and a drop in imports, while survey indicators suggest that the economy will struggle to grow over the coming months. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade weakened in Q2 The latest available data show that the volume of world trade fell in Q2, although this does not seem to have dented global economic growth, which we estimate to have picked up from 2.1% annualised in... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
