India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s goods trade deficit held steady in April, and we think it will remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Early signs of an EM export slowdown The very latest trade figures show that EM export growth has already started to soften and the continued weakening of the survey data suggest that this slowdown will continue in the coming months. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The drivers of Turkey’s widening current account deficit The deterioration in Turkey’s current account position since mid-2017 has been driven by a surge in gold imports, a rising energy import bill and strong domestic demand feeding through into imports of... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher spending causes Saudi budget deficit to widen Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened in Q1 compared with a year earlier as a raft of public sector bonuses more than offset the boost to revenues from the introduction of a new value-added tax. That... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) March’s improvements in German industrial production and the trade balance support our view that while Q1 was a pretty poor quarter, this will not mark the start of a sustained economic slowdown. 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) The latest trade data suggest that domestic demand is holding up fairly well. In contrast, despite a seasonal uptick in export growth, foreign demand for Chinese goods appears to have softened, with... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Apr.) China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to point to very little PBOC action in the FX markets, with muted capital outflows opening the door to renewed efforts to liberalise the capital account. 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US asks for the moon in China trade talks Demands made by the US going into this week’s trade negotiations with China were unrealistically high and an agreement today was never likely. Indeed, unless the Trump administration settles for a lot... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another first-quarter blip The weakness in advanced economies early this year, which was largely driven by softer household spending, looks like a temporary setback rather than anything more ominous. Admittedly, economic growth... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: A closer look at public debt worries We’ve long argued that Zambia’s debt position is very fragile. Adverse commodity price moves, for instance, could quickly push it into debt distress. If recent allegations that officials have... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a record high of $4.1bn in March, from $2.9bn, was not as bad as it seems since exports increased by 3.7% m/m and, although imports increased by a very strong 6.0%... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Trade (Mar.), ISM Non-Mfg. (Apr.) & Productivity (Q1) The sharp decline in the nominal trade deficit to a six-month low of $49.0bn in March, from $57.7bn in February, was driven by an encouraging rise in exports. The data imply that net trade was broadly... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta 2.0: what’s on the table? Following intensive talks last month, a preliminary new Nafta deal appears to be within reach. While it could still struggle to pass through legislatures in each country, the deal that looks to be on... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
