Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fifth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in October indicates that firms are dealing well with the headwind from a stronger exchange rate. What’s more, the survey suggests that consumer prices... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) The contraction in export values eased last month as the drag from falling prices is fading, and export volumes recorded the strongest rise since January last year. However, the renewed recent... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strong export performance The third-quarter GDP figures, due for release late this week, could provide a further boost to Clinton’s chances of winning. Although if our estimate that GDP growth picked up to 2.5% annualised is... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Shift away from US could damage Philippines’ economy The Philippines’ shift towards closer ties with China is unlikely to bring many economic benefits to the country. And by upsetting the US there is a risk that President Duterte undermines a much more... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Surge in current account highlights sluggish demand The strong recent increase in the current account surplus is bad news for an economy struggling with persistently weak demand, as it implies that households and firms have saved rather than spent the... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Exports showing signs of recovery Trade data for September showed the strongest annual growth in export values in almost two years. Looking ahead, exports should continue to recover, but the government’s target of nearly doubling... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Bank lending picked up in September and a broader measure of private sector credit expanded at the fastest pace since the launch of QQE in Q2. Meanwhile, low returns at home have encouraged Japanese... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose in August, but it probably fell over Q3 as a whole. Looking ahead, we think that the trade surplus will narrow further this year as global demand growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s September commodity imports hold up rather well A renewed contraction in China’s import bill grabbed the headlines this morning, but China’s commodity import volumes were actually surprisingly strong last month. 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
