Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound since it was floated earlier this month should help to narrow the country’s current account deficit and support a pick-up in private capital inflows. If backed up... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the RCEP compensate for the demise of the TPP? The potential benefits for Japan from the proposed RCEP trade deal in Asia are similar in scale to those that might have been achieved under the TPP. But they are not substitutes for each other: gains... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win could still be bad for Canada The rebound in financial markets following Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech is a positive sign for Canada’s economy. But his personal volatility and still potentially harsh views on trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA? The wholesale renegotiation of NAFTA that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail would require approval by Congress and seems unlikely to happen. But President Trump will have broad powers to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Troubles in Turkey’s tourism sector caused the current account deficit to widen even further in September, to around 4.7% of GDP. The wide external shortfall means that the lira is likely to remain... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in the third quarter of 2016, and while the worst for the economy is now over, a sharp rebound is unlikely. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Opportunities for China from Trump’s election Despite the threat of being hit with high tariffs and being labelled a currency manipulator, China will see benefits in the election of Donald Trump. In the near term, the dollar’s weakness against... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia? The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today and is likely to be in little hurry to adjust monetary policy over the coming year. Elsewhere in the region, the increase in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) The latest trade figures highlighted that a better performance from the external sector was one of the factors behind the strength of GDP growth in Q3. And the drop in the pound should have some... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
