Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting... 28th April 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s non-oil sector unlikely to sustain strong start Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a relatively strong start to the year underpinned by its non-oil sector. But while GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output rises, the coinciding slip in oil... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued... 25th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariffs may cause EZ GDP to flatline in Q2 and Q3 Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. But we think there will be a noticeable impact in the coming months and have reduced our forecast... 25th April 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Are the markets expecting too many rate cuts? While the deteriorating outlook for activity increases the chances of the Bank of England continuing to cut interest rates at its recent pace of one 25 basis point cut every quarter, which translates... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: JD Vance in India, Kashmir, flash PMIs, dovish RBI US Vice President JD Vance was in India this week talking up progress on a potential trade deal as well as hailing the strength of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, India’s... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What next for oil prices? 7th May 2025, 1:00PM BST We’d been warning for months about the supply risks to oil prices, so Saturday's OPEC+ decision to add 410,000 barrels per day from June wasn't surprising in that sense.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Mar 2025) The jump in durable goods orders in March was driven entirely by a large rise in orders received by Boeing. Excluding transport, core goods orders flatlined. With the post-strike boost from the... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (April 2025) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in April suggests that US tariffs have not yet meaningfully hit economic activity in Germany, though some sentiment indicators have fallen sharply. But... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q1 adv, 2025) Korea’s economy weakened further in Q1 and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term due to headwinds from tariffs and the bleak outlook for the construction sector. 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
