Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia inflation The PMIs from Emerging Asia picked up strongly last month, but we doubt this will last given the subdued outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the decline in inflation in Indonesia last month supports... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jun. 2024) The PMIs for June suggest that China’s economy lost some momentum last month. But the manufacturing surveys may have been weighed down by negative sentiment effects due to recent tariff announcements... 1st July 2024 (Updated 3rd July 2024) · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Three scenarios for after the French election With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have... 28th June 2024 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Korean activity data, dovish BSP, hawkish BoT The latest monthly activity data for Korea suggest that the economy weakened again last month and that GDP will have contracted in the second quarter of the year. In addition, while the central bank... 28th June 2024 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively... 28th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2024 Final) The upward revision to Q1 GDP growth from 0.6% q/q to 0.7% q/q (consensus forecast 0.6% q/q) suggests whoever is Prime Minister this time next week may benefit from the economic recovery being a bit... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production (May) The strong rebound in industrial production in May suggests that Japan’s economy turned a turner this quarter, but if output falls as much as firms are expecting this month, that strength won’t last. 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
