Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2 2025) Officials figures released today showed that Indonesia’s GDP growth stood at 5.1% y/y in Q2, but we don’t have much faith in the data – growth has been close to 5% for the past few years. Our... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jun. 25) The strong pickup in household spending last quarter won’t keep the RBA from handing down a 25bp cut when it meets next Tuesday. Looking ahead, however, the data do suggest upside risks to our below... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s auto boom to shift economy into higher gear Morocco’s autos production has surged over the past decade and now rivals major producers in Europe, such as Poland and Hungary and output could soon surpass Italy. This growth in the manufacturing... 4th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July paints a slightly bleaker picture of the sector than is the reality. The rise in the production and new orders sub-indices, along with the fall in the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Households faring better than businesses The latest survey indicators suggest the near-term economic outlook is soft, particularly for businesses. But households may fare a bit better. Although UK equities have lost some ground today, if the... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Trump's tariffs and what they mean for Asia Most countries in Asia will face tariffs of 15–25% on their exports to the US. While the tariffs are higher than we initially assumed, the impact on most countries will be manageable since they won’t... 1st August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariffs will slow Swiss growth, but not halt it We think the surprisingly high tariff rate on Switzerland of 39% that the US announced yesterday is likely be negotiated down in future and, importantly, pharmaceutical goods still appear to be exempt... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (July) The weak July manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe suggest that industry remains a drag on regional growth, and we expect that incoming tariffs will keep external demand conditions subdued over... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: CPI data signal green light for August rate cut Australian CPI data released this week will have gone a long way toward assuaging the RBA's concerns about lingering price pressures in the economy. And although retail sales picked up strongly in... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
