Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (June 25) While overall exports are still holding up well, those to the US are plunging and we think soft global demand will result in a further decline over the coming quarters 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Tariff Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff... 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (June 2025) The small rise in both industrial production and manufacturing output in June suggest that reciprocal tariffs are neither providing a boost nor suppressing domestic production. 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s bumpy recovery to continue May’s activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economic recovery remains slow and bumpy. While industry appears to have fared better recently, consumer-facing sectors appear to be losing steam... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in May confirms that the sector has been resilient to US tariffs so far and that may remain the case in the near term if, as we expect, Trump’s threat... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further as property sector remains weak New Zealand’s housing market is still struggling to recover from its steep post-pandemic downturn. Although we still expect it to turn the corner in the coming months, the risk is that it will remain... 15th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2025) Official GDP data came in a touch weaker in Q2. But the figures still overstate the strength of growth by around 1.5%-pts. And the June activity data suggest that the quarter ended on a weak note... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Back into the tariff storm? Mexico’s government seems confident that it can negotiate an agreement to stave off President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff that was delivered over the weekend. And even if the tariff came into force... 14th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp declaration in near-term economic activity. But this tailwind... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore GDP Q2 2025 (Advance estimate) Singapore’s economy rebounded sharply during the second quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. We expect a broad-based slowdown in the coming quarters and continue to expect the central bank... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Past the worst? The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone economy benefiting from tariffs The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9th July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Stalling trade negotiations may delay BoJ rate hikes We still expect a trade deal with the US to be agree upon after the Upper House elections on 20 th July. However, given that very few countries have managed to reach an agreement so far, the... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2025) The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP falling by 0.1% m/m. This leaves GDP on track to rise by just 0.1% q/q in Q2... 11th July 2025 · 3 mins read
