Long Run Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 13th February 2020 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big will the disruption be to Asian supply chains? Factory shutdowns in China are starting to have significant knock-on effects on the rest of the region as companies struggle to source intermediate goods. The garment and electronics sectors are... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish activity data for December suggest that the economic recovery gathered steam in the final quarter of last year. Looser fiscal and monetary policy will keep the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Consumption growth to remain muted this year Rising housing wealth may encourage households to spend a larger share of their incomes. But we expect income growth to weaken again as jobs growth slows and rising unemployment keeps a lid on wage... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ The New Zealand government’s $12 billion infrastructure package should contribute to a pick-up in business investment and GDP growth from the second half of this year. That supports our view that... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The economic impact of the new coronavirus in China China’s economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter, as a result of the measures that have been taken to limit the spread of the new coronavirus. The apparent slowdown in new infections... 12th February 2020 · 16 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Inflation rose faster than most expected in January due to a jump in core inflation. With an economic recovery around the corner, underlying price pressures should strengthen further over the coming... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Malaysia slowed again in Q4 and the disruption to trade and tourism flows from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to cause a much sharper downturn this quarter. The Prime Minister’s... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexico’s industrial sectors weakened again in December, capping a poor year and creating a weak starting point for 2020. The available surveys suggest that conditions remained difficult more recently. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Dec.) The South African manufacturing sector’s terrible performance in December has set up a weak start to 2020. And, given that power cuts lasted into January, problems in the sector probably continued. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q4, First Estimate) While the first estimate of Q4 GDP showed that the economy stagnated at the end of last year, this is old news and less important than the timelier data that suggests the economy has since turned a... 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Feb.) Korean trade data serve as a good bellwether for the rest of the region and figures for the first 10 days of February suggest that factory closures in China are disrupting regional industry. 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The marked improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in January suggests household spending bounced back strongly last month with no sign of a drag on sentiment from the coronavirus. Both... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Seasonal volatility and coronavirus disruptions pushed up consumer prices in January. But the PBOC is likely to look through this temporary rise in inflation when setting policy. 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth likely to remain weak in Q1 This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone, and we now expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy failed to grow at all in Q4 while German GDP contracted. While... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
