Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the recovery in Latin America The latest surveys and high-frequency data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery finally started to firm up in June. But it is still lagging other EM regions – and Chile’s recovery is yet to... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact Online sales surged during the lockdown and rose further even as the Australian and New Zealand economies were opening up again. We suspect online sales will remain high which means measures of... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Auto slowdown in Thailand, Singapore bouncing back Despite having successfully contained the virus, which has allowed daily life in Thailand to return to normal quicker than in other parts of the region, the country is still set to be one of the worst... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery The May activity data were consistent with our below-consensus forecast of a 9% q/q drop in Q2 GDP. Consumption should rebound more forcefully over the coming months as households receive cash... 3rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Renewed outbreaks will slow recovery in activity A fresh outbreak in Victoria has brought weekly cases close to their previous peak. That resulted in many Victorians being placed back into lockdown and caused panic buying of essentials to restart... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The rebound in June’s services and composite PMIs suggests the economy is now on the long road to normality. But the recovery will be slow and fitful. 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose above pre-virus levels in May and probably kept rising in June. As such, a sharp rebound in consumption in Q3 following Q2’s slump is all but guaranteed. However, services spending... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) Brazil’s industrial sector only recovered a small share of its coronavirus-related losses in May, with continued weakness the auto sector one key factor. While surveys suggest that the data for June... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (May) The trade balance was broadly stable in May but given significant price effects, trade may have been another drag on GDP growth in Q2. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 2020) The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in June provide further signs that economic output recovered strongly at the end of Q2 as lockdown measures were lifted. While we would caution that the PMIs may... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Despite remaining below 50, the rise in June’s manufacturing PMI reading suggests to us that activity has picked up further as containment measures have been scaled back. However, the lasting damage... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI The Caixin manufacturing PMI suggests that the pace of the recovery increased in June, echoing the official survey which was released yesterday. This supports our view that GDP growth likely turned... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions last month, although many readings are still low and suggest that overall manufacturers continue to struggle. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While business conditions collapsed in the Q2 Tankan, with economic activity now recovering that probably marks the trough. And surprisingly resilient investment forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi past the worst but austerity will hinder recovery The Saudi economy contracted by 1% y/y in Q1 and the figures from Q2 point to an even sharper downturn in Q2 due to the coronavirus crisis. The lifting of the lockdown this month is helping to support... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
