Asia Economics Update Korea: economic impact of coronavirus to worsen With the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Korea jumping sharply over the past few days, the Bank of Korea is almost certain to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4 2019) While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.) Exports fell by less than expected last month but net trade is set to be a major drag on GDP growth this quarter. Coronavirus-related disruption should contribute to net trade knocking around 0.6%pts... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 18th February 2020 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus to knock off 0.3% from GDP this year A slump in tourist arrivals has been the initial channel through which the virus outbreak in China has harmed Japan’s economy and will most likely knock around 0.4%-pts off GDP growth in Q1. As long... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: 2020 budget should limit hit from virus With the economic cost of the coronavirus mounting, Singapore’s government opted to loosen policy significantly in its 2020 budget today. Growth is still likely to slow sharply, but the strong fiscal... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump may have bottomed out A slump in investment has been the key factor behind the sharp economic slowdown over the past year. A spectacular rebound is not on the cards but investment should recover gradually over the coming... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Figures published today reveal that Thailand’s economy was in a poor state, even before the coronavirus hit. With tourist arrivals collapsing and the disruption from factory closures in China likely... 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The sharp drop in output after October’s sales tax hike supports our view that Japan’s economy will shrink this year. But with capacity shortages still tight and underlying inflation holding up, we... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2019) The weak batch of Q4 GDP data for Central & Eastern Europe show that the downturn in Germany took a bigger toll on growth across the region. Prolonged weakness in the euro-zone and softer domestic... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag The ratio of Japan’s public debt to GDP will probably keep rising over the coming decades. But with the Bank of Japan set to keep a lid on borrowing costs, it’s hard to make the case that public debt... 14th February 2020 · 8 mins read
