Africa Economics Update Kenya: The economic cost of the locust outbreak After a severe drought in 2019, Kenya is now facing the worst desert locust outbreak in 70 years. The impact on livelihoods could be devastating, but the economy-wide cost is likely to be limited. 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms While the coronavirus is already hurting tourism, China’s intensified efforts to contain the virus have presented another potential obstacle for the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, more companies... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia The RBA has finally come around to our view that economic growth was weak at the end of 2019. But the Bank remains too optimistic on the outlook for 2020. We think the loss of tourism exports due to... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How long can the current expansion continue? The Great Moderation in the volatility of GDP growth and price inflation, which began in the 1980s, came to an abrupt end with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 but, a decade later, what... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to disappoint even if oil price recovers Fears about the coronavirus outbreak have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for the Gulf countries. Lower oil prices and a possible deepening of oil production cuts will act as a... 5th February 2020 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Update Don’t fret about weak consumer spending It’s possible that consumer spending stagnated or even fell outright in Q4. But this is not too worrying as stronger growth in incomes, a fall in uncertainty and a rise in confidence should lead to a... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan car sector to drive recovery this year Morocco’s economy has slowed over the past few years, but we think that a recovery will take hold in 2020. Further out, we expect that the country will record growth in excess of 5% a year by 2030. 5th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to ease further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut interest rates today, and with the economy being hit hard by a slump in tourist arrivals as well as disruption to its industrial sector as the coronavirus continues to... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment booms in CEE likely to come to an end The investment booms that provided a key support to Central and Eastern Europe probably peaked last year. This is one reason why we think that regional GDP growth will slow in 2020-21. 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia? Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of the year. Meanwhile, underlying price pressures seem to be building in Egypt, but we... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
