US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% fall in industrial production in December was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output. The latest surveys suggest that the tentative recovery in manufacturing output is a... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic activity picked up last month, helping to avert a further slowdown last quarter. But despite the recent uptick in activity, we think it is premature to call the bottom of the current economic... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stagflation concerns are overdone There has been growing talk of “stagflation” in India following the release of December’s CPI data this week, which showed that headline inflation jumped to a five-year high. But we think these... 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recession still likely, despite stronger November Strong November retail sales figures suggest that South Africa’s economy gained ground in the middle of Q4. Given power cuts in December, however, we expect that output still fell over the quarter as... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The surge in “core” machinery orders in November was largely due to a spike in transport and postal activities and we still expect non-residential investment to fall this year. Orders of manufacturing... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s boom has further to run in 2020 Hungary’s economy is likely to lose some steam this year, but loose policy will ensure that growth remains above potential. This will keep inflation high and economic imbalances will continue to build... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mortgage defaults may keep rising Banks’ housing lending standards remain tight. But this hasn’t prevented housing arrears from climbing to fresh highs as household balance sheets are stretched. And given that we expect the... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: stuck in the slow lane The prevailing view that this will be the year when Brazil’s recovery finally shifts up a gear looks overly optimistic. We expect that GDP growth will come in at just 1.5% over 2020, which leaves us... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
US Economics Update Tide starting to turn for business investment There is mounting evidence to suggest that business investment growth is set to rebound, which should help drive overall GDP growth back above its potential pace in the second half of this year. 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) The Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for November were a mixed bag but, on balance, suggest that the economy gathered pace in Q4. Looser policy means that we think the economy... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
