Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s flash manufacturing PMI showed activity in the sector has finally started to rebound. That’s consistent with recent signs of recovery in domestic and global demand. However, we think any... 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) The strong rise in headline inflation from 1.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in Q4 should be enough to prevent the RBNZ cutting rates in February. And given that we now expect a strengthening in economic activity to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Polish activity data for December suggest that GDP growth weakened from 3.9% y/y in Q3 to a three-year low of 3.5% y/y in Q4. The slowdown in growth reinforces our view that the central... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) GDP growth picked up pace again in the final quarter of last year, but with the big boost from government spending likely to fade this year, we think this will be as good as it gets. 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth by around 0.4 percentage points in Q4. However, much of that reflects soft domestic demand following October’s sales tax hike. We expect the external... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: reform package key test for Jokowi The legislation that President Joko Widodo has presented to parliament, which includes proposals to cut red tape, lower taxes and free up the labour market, would form the basis of any foreign... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends (Jan.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The rebound in the main balances of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in January offers further evidence that sentiment has taken an upward turn after the general election. This should help to convince... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia likely to cut again this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 3.00% to 2.75%, and with growth set to slow further over the next couple of quarters, we think the central bank will ease policy again later... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth rebounded more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the economy should continue to stage a recovery over the coming quarters. The strong outturn in Q4 means we no longer... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A fitful recovery Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the... 21st January 2020 · 26 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4) Taiwan’s economy picked up steam again last quarter, and with the economy continuing to benefit from the trade war, we expect growth to remain strong throughout 2020. 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations Policy loosening will drive a stronger recovery in Turkey’s economy than most expect this year, but this is likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, a widening current account deficit and falls... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mining’s dominance to end regardless of bushfires We doubt that the bushfire crisis will prompt a major shift in the Australian government’s attitude towards the mining industry. But the sector’s importance is set to decline either way as mining... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
