Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Annual GDP (2019) The Russian full-year GDP growth figure of 1.3% in 2019 was well below 2018’s outturn of 2.5%, but the figures suggest that growth accelerated a little further in the final quarter of last year, to 1... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial sectors over the coming months. Elsewhere, the jump in Turkey’s PMI to a 22-month high leaves it... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped further in January, adding to the evidence that the economy remained very weak at the start of 2020. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy continued to contract last quarter and the Coronavirus outbreak will probably keep the city in recession for a while longer. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI surged in January to an eight-year high and defied the trend across the rest of Asia. Though the reading may fall back as fears over the coronavirus dents sentiment, the big... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) While the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down last month, the survey was conducted too early to tell us much about the extent of the economic damage from the Coronavirus outbreak. The February survey... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery from weak Q4 will be slow and gradual The raft of Q4 GDP data published this week were weaker than we or the consensus had expected. While the surveys for January show a small improvement in sentiment and activity, they are still... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) The official PMIs show that manufacturing activity weakened, and non-manufacturing strengthened, in the lead-up to the Coronavirus outbreak. The following months’ PMIs will give insight into how... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) While consumer spending remained subdued in December following October’s sales tax hike, the continued resilience of the labour market suggests that this has yet to discourage firms from hiring new... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The 2.1% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was not quite as solid as it looked, with consumption growth slowing and business investment contracting for a third consecutive quarter. Nevertheless... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Flat again Mexico dodged another technical recession in Q4, we think that the weakness seen in the later months of last year will persist into 2020, causing growth to fall far below consensus expectations. 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
