China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Infections ease, but recovery proving slow Though there are notable exceptions, there are some encouraging signs that new infections of the coronavirus are falling in many places in Emerging Asia. The slowing spread of the virus should allow... 8th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdown set to loosen in some regions The government confirmed this week that the nationwide state of emergency will be extended until 31 st May. But with daily cases slowing, some local authorities have signalled they are considering... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly External demand to constrain Sweden’s recovery While there are welcome signs that Sweden has reaped some benefits from its light-touch lockdown, the economy will be constrained by the recovery in the rest of the continent given its dependence on... 7th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin in peril, CEE Q1 GDP The failure of the Russian authorities to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the lack of urgency with which policymakers have stepped up fiscal support has made us increasingly concerned about a... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Output won’t return to normal anytime soon Economic activity in New Zealand has started to rebound after its severe lockdown has come to an end. But there are a number of reasons why output won’t return to normal anytime soon. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The larger-than-expected contraction in the Philippines economy in Q1 suggests that the lockdown there is having a severe impact on economic activity and that growth is likely to be even worse than we... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) The extraordinary plunge in the services PMI highlights that services is faring far worse than the manufacturing sector in the current crisis. Looking ahead, the services sector is likely to suffer... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1) A large share of the surge in retail sales values in Q1 reflected soaring prices and sales volumes only rose modestly. With spending on many services plummeting, consumption probably fell in Q1. And... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Virus disruption will leave severe and lasting scars India’s economy is all but certain to contract this year for the first time since 1979. And the government’s reluctance to respond to the coronavirus crisis as aggressively as those elsewhere means... 6th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q1) & Switzerland CPI (Apr.) The comparatively small fall in Swedish GDP in Q1 appears to owe as much to a strong January and February as Sweden’s lighter-touch lockdown. Accordingly, today’s data underplay the scale of the... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia held up better than most in Q1, but we doubt this resilience will last. Indonesia was later than other countries to lockdown its economy, meaning more of the hit will have... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
