Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The robust 2.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October suggests that the economy started Q4 on a solid footing. But more timely indicators imply that the recovery struggled over the rest... 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift China’s leadership will gather in the coming days for the annual Central Economic Work Conference. With the economy now back on track, we think discussions will focus on the recent surge in debt... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery slowing, but prospects brightening for 2021 The latest data suggest that the recovery in output has continued apace in recent months. Admittedly, the third virus wave will probably act as a brake on the recovery for now. But with vaccines set... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Oct.) The economy continued to grow in October, but at a snail’s pace. And with the COVID-19 restrictions likely to remain in place for some time, the economy is in for a difficult few months yet. But scope... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Oct.) The economy continued to grow in October, but at a snail’s pace. And with the COVID-19 restrictions likely to remain in place for some time, the economy is in for a difficult few months yet. But scope... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the vaccine will affect Greece’s economy The recent tightening in coronavirus restrictions means that Greece’s recovery will shift into reverse in Q4 and the start of 2021 is also likely to be weak. However, the rollout of a vaccine by mid... 9th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Oct.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected increase in mainland Norwegian GDP means that the economy will avoid contracting in Q4 and confirms that it will experience a comparatively modest drop in output in 2020... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Oct. 2020) The surge in machinery orders in October supports our view that non-residential investment began to recover this quarter. We expect them to rebound further over the coming months. 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3) The surge in mortgage lending to its highest level since before the financial crisis has come despite banks curbing riskier loans. If we are right to think that house prices will dip, that should... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy staged a rapid rebound from the first lockdowns. This provides grounds for optimism about growth prospects for next year. 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in November still leaves it consistent with solid growth in consumer spending. As such, the survey is consistent with our view that the third wave will slow... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment already turning a corner The surge in capital goods shipments in October and solid profit data for Q3 suggest that capital spending is ending the year on a strong note. We’re revising up our forecast for business investment... 7th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) Germany’s manufacturing output rose again in October and the signs are that it held up well after the lockdown-lite came into force in November. It now looks as if Germany will be the only major euro... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
