Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2020) While headline inflation fell sharply again in November due to weaker fresh food and energy inflation, we think it will recover early next year. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to stick to course, despite ‘manipulator’ label This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Looking ahead, the SNB will brush off being branded a ‘currency... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for interest rates in Indonesia? Indonesia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged today, but given the poor outlook for growth, further easing is likely early next year. 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget deficit may narrow faster than most anticipate The fact that the government revised up its estimate for the underlying cash balance in 2020/21 by more than 1% of GDP since the October Budget underlines that the economy is recovering much faster... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The extraordinary rebound in New Zealand’s GDP was probably driven, in part, by the release of pent-up demand, but we still expect output to rise further in the months ahead. 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The latest surge in coronavirus infections, which has forced a number of states to re-impose lockdowns, resulted in a worse-than-expected decline in retail sales in November. With case numbers still... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (Dec.) & Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in the Composite PMI in December to just below 50 primarily reflected the partial lifting of virus restrictions in France. But with Germany now imposing tougher measures, the big picture... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The small rebound in the composite PMI in December suggests that GDP did not make much of a recovery after the hit to activity from the COVID-19 lockdown in November. But it is probably understating... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The small rebound in the composite PMI in December suggests that GDP did not make much of a recovery after the hit to activity from the COVID-19 lockdown in November. But it is probably understating... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
