Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Doubts about vaccination strategy, soaring vacancies Australian scientists are proposing a halt in the rollout of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which forms the bulk of available vaccine doses in Australia, because its lower effectiveness compared to... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovering, but headwinds remain The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment growth recovered further in Q4. The rebound should continue over the coming months, but is likely to slow in the second half of the year as... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank eyeing tighter macroprudential policy The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday, but there is an outside chance that it could start to re-tighten macroprudential policy to tame the... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank unlikely to ease more in response to virus wave The Bank of Japan is unlikely to respond to the worsening virus outbreak with additional stimulus. However, policymakers may provide some hints at the upcoming meeting about what to expect from the... 14th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Nov. 2020) The further rise in machinery orders in November followed a record monthly surge in October and suggests that business investment was rebounding strongly at the end of last year. We expect non... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s slow vaccine rollout won’t prevent recovery France’s tight restrictions are set to be in place for at least another month or two, so GDP will not recover strongly during Q1. However, although the slow start to the vaccine rollout poses a... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.5% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production was almost entirely due to a huge increase in Ireland. Excluding Ireland, production was roughly flat on the month. Nevertheless... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a combination of a... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Vaccines won’t prevent a weak start to the year While the economic fallout will not be as severe as it was with the first lockdowns, the surge in virus cases will weigh on activity in Q1. Vaccine rollouts should provide a boost to the global... 12th January 2021 · 14 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The drop in India’s consumer price inflation in December strengthens our view that monetary policy will remain very loose for a long time to come, and could even be enough to trigger a policy rate cut... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will households spend what they have saved? If euro-zone households spent all of their forced savings from last year, it could provide a boost to GDP growth in 2021 of as much as 3%. In practice, we doubt that it will be anything like that... 12th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Nov.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in mainland Norwegian GDP in November shows that activity was reasonably resilient to tighter virus-related restrictions and was well placed coming into 2021. While... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: cutting our forecasts on new restrictions The decision by the Malaysian government to place the country under a two-week lockdown to slow the spread of the virus is likely to hit the economy hard. We are cutting our growth forecast for 2021... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The sharp drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in December suggests that the third wave was weighing heavily on consumer sentiment even before the declaration of a state of emergency in Greater Tokyo... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
