Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity set for a muted recovery in 2021 Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK)... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.), HICP & ESI (Dec.) Activity data published this morning suggest that the euro-zone economy performed better in Q4 than we had anticipated. But the recent extensions of lockdowns make it more likely that the economy... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) A surge in imports meant that the trade balance narrowed in November so we now think that trade was a modest drag on growth in Q4. 2.6 6.4 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggests the economy ended 2020 on a slightly weaker note than previously thought. With restrictions being extended and tightened in... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The recovery in consumer confidence flipped into reverse in December amid surging coronavirus infections. We think confidence will deteriorate further this year as tighter restrictions damage economic... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Dec.) India’s PMI readings were a mixed bag in December but are still consistent with a continued economic recovery across Q4 as a whole. Further improvements should follow, especially given promising COVID... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 60.7 in December, from 57.5, is at odds with the wider evidence that the economic recovery is slowing and suggests the... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Three lockdowns, two recessions, one big recovery The third lockdown to contain COVID-19 means that the economy will start the year in recession and the recovery will be delayed again. Even so, by expecting the economy to regain its pre-crisis level... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The lockdowns implemented at the end of last year did not lead to another surge in bank lending, probably because they were less strict and more focused on limiting social activity. But if lockdowns... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The strong set of December manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry started 2021 on the front foot, supported by robust activity in Asia. This bodes well for Q1 and... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Output may keep rising despite state of emergency It looks likely that a state of emergency will be declared in the Greater Tokyo Area over the coming weeks which could involve the closure of shops, schools and restaurants. While that will result in... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
