China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI reflects the further lifting of restrictions in many parts of the region and suggests the economic recovery is now fully underway. Supply chain difficulties... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: capacity constraints and global chip supply Taiwan’s economy is being buffeted by several apparently unconnected shocks – a drought, power outages and an outbreak of COVID-19. But they are all linked to severe capacity shortages resulting from... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Scar free? The implications of a full economic recovery While the consensus has become more optimistic about the near-term recovery, most analysts – and the majority of central banks – still believe that the pandemic will leave a legacy of lower global... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Apr.) The surge in retail sales volumes in April shows that households flooded back to the shops once they reopened in the middle of the month and suggests there is even some upside risk to our forecast... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Disappointing Q1, Moderna & AZ jabs approved Due to the economy faring worse than we had expected in Q1, we’ve significantly revised down our 2021 GDP forecast. Even so Japan’s economy is still on course for a strong recovery later in the year... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Labour market taking a hit, Cyclone Tauktae High-frequency data show that job losses are starting to mount, but a key lesson from last year is that the labour market can recover quickly once virus restrictions are lifted. That provides hope... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the manufacturing sector will continue to recover as supply shortages are starting to ease. However, the plunge in the services PMI suggests that overall economic... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2021) Inflation fell in April but that was almost entirely due to a plunge in mobile phone tariffs. Sifting through that distortion, headline inflation rose in April and will float higher over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Over the worst? New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate bonds versus equities The relative valuation of stock and corporate bond markets continues to make us doubt that equities in general are in a bubble. It remains very different to the situation before collapses in the US... 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook bright for home improvement spending Booming home sales, record low inventory, the shift to working from home and a surge in savings have all helped boost home improvement spending over the past three quarters. While home sales are set... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed March data point to a small Q1 expansion South Africa’s hard activity data for March showed a strong rebound in industrial sectors while the retail sector struggled. Over Q1 as a whole, GDP probably managed to expand by about 1.5% q/q on an... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
