FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s slowdown will stop Treasury yields from rising We doubt that worries about a sharp slowdown in China’s economy will prevent US Treasury yields from rising further, in contrast to what took place in mid-to-late 2015. 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The fiscal risk of rising rates, Mercosur tariff cuts Central banks were once again in the spotlight this week after the supersized 125bp rate hike in Chile, but one issue that is often overlooked is the damaging impact of rising interest rates on public... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour force exodus shows no sign of reversing This week brought more news that acute labour shortages and the resulting surge in wages are rapidly feeding through into the most cyclically sensitive components of the consumer price index. 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a game-changer for the Bank We are not convinced that the further rise in oil prices this week will be sustained. Even if we are wrong, we doubt that higher oil prices will cause the Bank of Canada to become much more hawkish. 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September suggests goods spending held up a little better than we had anticipated, but real consumption growth still slowed sharply in the third quarter. 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Few signs of inflation in Scandinavia While global financial markets are obsessing over the possible rebirth of inflation, there are precious few signs that it is about to take off in Scandinavia. The increases in headline inflation for... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Closer to lift-off, but rates not going to the moon We still think it is more likely that the first hike in interest rates will come next year rather than this year. But irrespective of when it happens, the key point is that the subsequent pace of... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy, semi-conductors and Italy’s Green Pass The continued high level of energy prices strengthens our view that euro-zone inflation will keep rising in the coming months. But by lowering consumers’ purchasing power, it could actually reduce... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida dissolves parliament, firms look to seniors The ruling LDP appears to be bracing for a slimming down of its lower house majority in the general election that will take place on 31 st October. That would make tangible structural reform progress... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Car woes to weigh on recoveries in Mexico & CEE The supply constraints that have hit global vehicle output have probably reduced the level of GDP by a modest 0.1-0.2% in most EM auto producers, but some countries like Czechia, Hungary and Mexico... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property downturn deepens, triggering easing Supply-side disruptions mean there is an unusual amount of uncertainty about China’s recent economic performance. But one thing that’s clear is that the property sector downturn has gathered pace in... 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia reopens, more hikes in Korea & Sri Lanka Countries across Emerging Asia are making renewed efforts to reopen their borders to boost flagging tourism sectors. However, the recovery is likely to be very gradual, not least because China (which... 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
