UK Economics Update Labour shortages becoming worse and more widespread Labour shortages seem to be worse and more widespread than we had expected. Although the end of the furlough scheme in late September may ease some of the shortages, we doubt it will plug all the... 12th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August suggests that the economy may have held up better than we had previously anticipated in Q3. But, under the surface... 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial sector bounced back in August following a weak start to the quarter and, while retail sales growth slowed, it looks like the economy recorded another robust increase in GDP in Q3. 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Recovery enters a slower phase Following a rapid rebound from the second virus wave, India’s economy is beginning to lose some steam. And with vaccination coverage still low, downside risks remain significant. Under these... 11th October 2021 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily We expect long-dated Treasury yields to rise further still The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since June on Friday amid growing concerns about inflation. We forecast that the yield will rise further over the coming years, as investors... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Congress hits snooze on the debt ceiling Even the more modest 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is “decent” enough for the Fed to announce at next month’s meeting that it will begin tapering its asset purchases, especially now... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Heading off a fiscal cliff? There have been rumours this week that the government will extend some of the emergency spending measures that are soon due to expire. They are unlikely to be extended in their current generous form... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Power cuts and inflation, zero-COVID hobbling tourism The coming week may shine a light on the global impact of China’s power shortages. There are reports of them triggering sharp falls in shipping costs. The producer price data on Thursday will show... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy costs soar, vehicle output slumps Soaring energy costs are yet another headwind to the euro-zone’s economic recovery. That said, while the balance of risks has arguably shifted to the upside, we still think price pressures are likely... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s August shocker The slump in Sweden’s GDP indicator for August brought its economy back below its pre-pandemic level, whereas Norway – which appears to be unencumbered by these headwinds – saw its economy continue... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Economies after COVID: one year on It is a year since we published our “Economies after COVID” series, so now seems like a good time to pause and take stock of how our predictions about the legacy of the pandemic are shaping up. There... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about inflation? The recent jump in energy prices will put upward pressure on inflation across the region, but the impact should prove short lived and is unlikely to worry policymakers. 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
