Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3 2021) The latest Tankan survey was stronger than most had anticipated, supporting our view that the economy will recover rapidly as the Delta wave has ebbed. However, there are mounting signs that the... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Even if the US dollar falls back a bit further in the near term, we expect it to resume its recent rally in due course. 30th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Withdrawal of CRB a risk to consumption Due to the still high household saving rate, we have so far been sanguine about the risks posed by the winding down of benefit payments to households. But with goods shortages limiting the scope for... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil rallies, Bahrain VAT hike, Tunisia gets a new PM The price of oil hit its highest level in nearly three years this week and, combined with rising oil output, will help support an improvement in budget and current account positions in the Gulf. This... 30th September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Aug.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries only edged slightly higher in August, suggesting that the rapid reopening rebound has faded. The broader industrial recovery remains fragile against... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q2 Final) Today’s release suggests the economy is closer to its pre-pandemic level than we had previously thought and raises the risk that the Bank of England hikes interest rates sooner than our forecast of... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs diverged this month. But the big picture is that industry was coming off the boil even prior to the latest power shortages. On a more upbeat note, the official surveys point to... 30th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 2021) The sharp falls in both retail sales and industrial production in August indicate that activity weakened significantly at the height of the Delta-driven fifth wave. But while that suggests that the... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Supply shortages, monetary policy and stock/bond correlations Although we expect bond yields to rise further, we don’t think that would necessarily coincide with the sort of sharp falls in equity prices we saw earlier this week. 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (September) The small improvement in economic sentiment in the euro-zone in September provides reassurance that supply shortages and the Delta variant will not cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The continued fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September provides further evidence that the regional recovery in Central and Eastern Europe has slowed in Q3 as supply disruptions... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds China’s power shortages are a reflection of the global strain in energy markets and won’t be resolved overnight. Power rationing will constrain industrial activity until demand weakens enough to bring... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
