Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (Nov.) The decline in the KOF Economic Barometer in November adds to signs that the rebound in Swiss GDP shifted into reverse in Q4. However, given the government’s decision to resist a nationwide lockdown... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely New Zealand is likely to be one of the few countries where output had recovered to pre-virus levels in Q3. Taken together with the recent positive news on the vaccine, we no longer expect the RBNZ to... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy recorded a strong 15.6% q/q rebound in Q3 from its collapse in Q2, but lingering weakness in the tourism sector as well as the recent tightening of both virus containment measures and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The latest official PMI surveys show that the pace of economic growth picked up in November on the back of a broad-based improvement in both services and manufacturing. 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Oxford vaccine is a shot in the arm for the economy The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India would significantly improve the near-term economic outlook, and we have revised up our GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022. But the economy will... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) Retail sales rose in October, but as both values and volumes are now above pre-virus levels they’re unlikely to rise much further and could edge down amidst the third wave. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The y/y slump in Indian GDP eased substantially in Q3 (Q2 of FY20/21), but output was still 9% below its pre-virus level last quarter. Looking ahead, encouraging news on vaccines has brightened the... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Nov.) The fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone in November was hardly a surprise given the tightening of restrictions. But the ESI is higher than it was in the spring... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame With many local authorities rolling out fresh restrictions this week, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the third wave will weigh on activity over the near term. But while we’ve revised down our... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Factoring in a vaccine to our forecasts Following the run of positive news on the vaccine front, we now expect Switzerland and the Nordic economies to regain pre-virus levels in late 2021. Nonetheless, policymakers will be in no rush to... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Spending to underperform, but only in the near term Retail sales are likely to fall further behind those in the US amid the latest coronavirus-related restrictions, particularly because the Canadian data do a worse job at capturing online sales... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine We now assume that vaccines will be rolled out in the euro-zone next year and that most of the restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, demand rebounds fairly rapidly and... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
