India Chart Pack Economy holding up amid policy tightening GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY22/23) due next week should show that the economy grew at a robust pace last quarter despite the onset of monetary policy tightening. And more timely indicators suggest that... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Firms’ selling price expectations at 10-month low There was some better news from the CFIB Business Barometer and new home sales data this week, although both still point to weak economic growth. Meanwhile, the fall in firms’ selling price... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Government needs to step up to prevent deep recession The possibility of even bigger increases in the Ofgem utility price cap early next year means that the economy is facing down the barrel of a fairly deep recession. The depth of the recession... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Nigeria picked up to 3.5% y/y in Q2 as woes in the oil sector eased and the non-oil economy held up well. We expect the drag from the oil sector to diminish further in the coming... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping costs fall in tandem with export orders World trade was broadly unchanged at a high level in June, and timelier data suggest that the continued easing of supply constraints in China helped lift exports in Asia in July. But forward-looking... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén eyeing faster rate rises One does not need to be Nostradamus to see that Martin Flodén will espouse stepping up the pace of monetary tightening when the Executive Board of the Riksbank convenes again, in September. While our... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s gas crisis The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida eager to revive nuclear energy August’s Tokyo CPI showed a further jump in electricity prices. Against this backdrop, PM Kishida announced that he wants to restart more nuclear reactors and build new ones, but it remains unclear... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilient activity points to aggressive RBA tightening While business surveys in other advanced economies point to shrinking activity, the are holding up much better in Australia. The resilience of Australia's consumer reflects the strongest rise in... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug.) Although the Ifo Business Climate Index edged down only trivially in August it remained at a very low level and is consistent with the economy contracting sharply. After GDP expanded by a mere 0.1% q... 25th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deeper recession, inflation to hit 10% The continued surge in European gas prices, and likelihood that they will remain extremely high, means that the euro-zone will probably suffer a deeper recession than we had previously anticipated. It... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The stagnation in durable goods orders in July was principally due to a 50% m/m slump in defence aircraft orders, which are both volatile and not reflective of the strength of private demand... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Rental boom keeps construction elevated The surge in interest rates so far this year has contributed to a sharp decline in home sales but, so far at least, that has not weighed on construction activity. Housing starts averaged 279,000... 24th August 2022 · 9 mins read
