Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse Russia has suspended the publication of monthly trade data, but figures from its trading partners show that import values plunged 45% m/m in March while exports rose slightly amid high commodity... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Large pot of pandemic savings to collect dust The hit to household incomes from higher inflation will be much smaller in Japan than elsewhere and consumers have plenty of pandemic forced savings to tap into to sustain spending. But we nonetheless... 11th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: five questions and answers on the crisis The resignation yesterday of the prime minister, the postponement of talks with the IMF, surging inflation and the collapse of the currency are just some of the many problems facing Sri Lanka. In this... 10th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) The small rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in May left it still very low. And the current conditions index fell further, which is consistent with our view that the economy will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet Industrial production in Central Europe performed much better than expected in March given the sharp fall in German production. We still think industry will weaken in Q2 as supply chain disruptions... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will a housing downturn crash the economy? We expect higher interest rates to cause a 10% fall in house prices over the next 12 months and an even steeper fall in residential investment. With the rest of the economy still recovering from the... 9th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Growth might underperform value for a while yet While US equities have fallen across the board today, “growth” stocks have continued to fare even worse than their “value” peers. We think that this underperformance has further to run, given that the... 9th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Some bright spots in China’s commodities trade data Energy commodity imports held up relatively well in April given the widespread COVID-19 restrictions. But the trade data throw up some question marks about demand for industrial metals given the... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in April, to 7.7% y/y and 7.2% y/y respectively, has a bit further to run in the near term. This will prompt Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response S&P Global PMIs (Apr.) April’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a loss of momentum at the start of Q2 but continued to highlight the growing divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies as a result of the spillovers... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Growth slowed in Q1 as Omicron held back the recovery at the start of the quarter. Activity is rebounding now that the economy has reopened, but other headwinds are growing. China Drop-In (12 th May... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Falling real incomes won’t derail consumption for now The sharpest fall in real incomes since the 1990/91 recession won’t prevent a strong rebound in consumption this year and next. But with the tailwind from reopening the economy set to fade... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms The slump in home sales in April, combined with the unexpected fall in hours worked, point to downside risks to GDP last month. While hours worked are set to rebound in May, there is likely to be much... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
