Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation picked up to 2.7% y/y in July due to strengthening underlying price pressures, but we think that it is now at or close to a peak and will gradually fall back over the rest of this year... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q2 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy grew in Q2 driven mainly by private consumption, though the overall figure disappointed mainly due to fluctuations in stockbuilding that won’t last. The recovery should persist through... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2022) Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in Q2, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms – a much better performance than analysts had expected and than had seemed likely a few months ago... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inverting to a hurting? Yield curve inversions have a patchy record of predicting recessions in Canada, but they almost always precede a sharp economic slowdown and the unusually deep nature of the current inversion makes it... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a bigger and longer-lasting squeeze on real incomes The prospect of a bigger rise in utility prices in October and in the first half of 2023 means the risks to our forecast for CPI inflation to rise from June's 40-year high of 9.4% to a peak of 12.5%... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th August 2022 · 1 min read
US Economics More good news on inflation coming soon The drop back in CPI inflation in July wasn’t enough alone to convince Fed officials to change their plans for interest rate hikes. But we expect the better news on inflation to continue over the... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Not all price pressures are easing There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as... 12th August 2022 · 12 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in July is a challenge to our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate by 50bps again next month. But core inflation remains pretty strong, and the... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Jun. & Q2) The 0.6% m/m drop in GDP in June was mostly due to the adverse effect of the extra Jubilee bank holiday. Even so, the GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a whole and... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s activity figures for June painted a mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to post solid growth but retail sales suffering a fresh knock. The bigger picture, however, is that... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
