Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in June will only strengthen the resolve of policymakers to squeeze inflation out of the system and raises the chance that the Bank will make... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkey’s activity figures for May show that industrial production and retail sales have now both surpassed their highs from late-2021 despite the weight of sky-high inflation. With strong demand and... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank has breathing room to reconsider tolerance band The Bank of Japan will signal prolonged loose policy by forecasting below-target inflation over the next couple of years in next week’s “Outlook” report. Meanwhile, the fall in global bond yields in... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens even as economy stagnates The city-state’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the second quarter but this didn’t prevent the MAS from tightening monetary policy today in a bid to tackle high inflation. While we expect output to... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Product shortages ease as activity weakens Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The... 13th July 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank pulls out all the stops with 100 bp hike The Bank of Canada’s 100 bp hike today and its accompanying communications have led us to upgrade our forecast for the policy rate to 3.5% by the October policy meeting, from 3.0%. As the commodity... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger than expected 1.3% rise in consumer prices in June, which pushed headline inflation to 9.1%, from 8.6%, nails on another 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. But with commodity prices... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update UN forecasts confirm broad demographic headwinds The UN’s latest population projections highlight that demographic headwinds are set to mount in almost all economies outside Africa. The most significant downward revisions were to its forecasts for... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s 0.8% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production was largely due to a huge rise in Ireland’s output. Excluding Ireland, production decreased slightly in May. Moreover, high-frequency... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (May) The recent resilience of GDP to the drag from the high rate of inflation probably won’t last and there is still a big risk that the economy falls into recession. Even so, the surprisingly strong rise... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD: To parity and beyond? While the euro’s rapid fall over the past couple of weeks means that a lot of bad news about the euro-zone economy now appears to be discounted, the trends driving the common currency lower may... 12th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB be worrying about the euro? The euro hit parity against the US dollar today and we wouldn’t be surprised if it falls further. While we think it would take big moves in the trade-weighted exchange rate for the ECB to intervene in... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in June, but the core rate rose further. We expect inflation to climb higher above the RBI’s target in July and August, which should be enough for the MPC... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) Industrial production in Mexico rose by a disappointing 0.1% m/m and timely indicators suggest that the sector was even weaker still in June. With growth in the US weakening, we expect industrial... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
