Canada Data Response GDP (Q2) The weaker-than-expected second-quarter rise in GDP as well as the preliminary estimate of a small fall in output in July confirm the economy is slowing sooner than the Bank of Canada predicted... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Base effects caused a surge in headline Indian GDP growth in Q2 (Q1 of FY22/23), but underlying growth slowed relative to Q1. As a result, GDP growth won’t reach 9% in 2022 as we had thought. That... 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2022) Turkey’s economy posted another robust quarter of growth in Q2, with GDP rising by 2.1% q/q, as stronger consumption and exports more than offset weaker investment. But strong growth is merely adding... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The official PMIs show a further loss in economic momentum this month as the reopening boost waned and the property downturn deepened. We continue to think the economy will struggle to make much... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (July 22) Industrial production rose at a solid pace in July whereas most of the rise in retail sales values reflected soaring prices. While the manufacturing sector should bounce back this quarter, services... 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul. 22) 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks back in the spotlight The region faces a busy political calendar. Chileans head to the polls on Sunday to vote on a new constitution which would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. While the... 30th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (August) Germany’s inflation rate resumed its upward trend in August. We expect it to be around, or above, 10% in October after the temporary measures which have suppressed prices since June are withdrawn and... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Aug.) The further decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in August echoes the message from the other business surveys that the euro-zone economy is on the verge of recession as sky-high energy... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe for August continued the trend in recent months of very weak data releases for the region and point to a sharp slowdown in GDP... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Terms of trade shocks will hold back recovery Japan is facing its largest terms of trade shock since the second oil crisis in the early-1980s. While we don’t expect Japan to follow other advanced economies into recession, we’re slashing our 2023... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike rates to 3.60% by early-2023 With the unemployment rate falling to fresh lows and consumer spending remaining resilient, another 50bp hike at the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on 6 th September is all but... 30th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2022) Not only did retail sales rise for the seventh consecutive month in July, the strong size of the increase strongly suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates by another 50bp next... 29th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly With inflation outlook improving, pivot is still on In a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
