Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales were basically unchanged in February, but this understates the strength of total spending following the lifting of the Omicron wave restrictions on high-contact services. As consumer... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weak economy won’t prevent further bond market sell-off The downbeat news on the UK economy this week did not stop the 10-year gilt yield rising further to its highest level since November 2015. And with CPI inflation set to climb further, perhaps to a... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike With several members of the ECB Governing Council coming out in favour of a July rate hike this week we are feeling more confident in our forecast that the Bank will raise its deposit rate to +0.25%... 22nd April 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Salmon-omics; Riksbank set to hike We expect the Riksbank to raise the repo rate by 25bps, to +0.25%, next week. But whereas some central banks – notably the US Fed – are gearing up for aggressive tightening cycles, the comparatively... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The fall in the composite PMI in April suggests GDP growth has continued to slow as the cost of living crisis has intensified. But economic activity doesn’t appear to be collapsing. And, beneath the... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in April suggests that the services sector rebound from the Covid restrictions earlier in the year is offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector. But with... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of exports softening, new governor at the BoK There are growing signs that demand for the region’s exports are starting to soften. Weaker external demand will add to the headwinds facing the region’s economies, which are already being hit by the... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales figures in Poland remained incredibly strong in March and point to a solid expansion in Q1. A lot of this strength is unlikely to last as the effects of the war... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) The hefty fall in retail sales in March marks the second consecutive month of decline and adds to signs that the real wage squeeze is hitting consumer spending. With CPI inflation already at a 30-year... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t prevent slowdown in spending Households and corporates in advanced economies amassed savings during the pandemic which could feasibly be used to support consumption and investment in the current environment of rising costs. But... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
