Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.4% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April suggests that rate-sensitive business equipment investment growth is beginning to slow, with underlying capital goods shipments consistent... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, revised) The decent upwards revision to Q1 GDP data reveals that the economy gained more momentum at the end of the quarter, a trend which is likely to carry on throughout Q2. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Orders slowing and price pressures still acute The flash PMIs for May suggest that activity slowed in most DMs compared to April, and weaker growth in new orders points to a further slowdown to come. There were some positive developments on the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising interest costs add to pressure on EZ households We estimate that euro-zone households’ debt interest payments will quadruple as a share of income over the next couple of years as the ECB raises its policy rate. This will put yet further strain on... 24th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Policy easing stepping up The State Council has announced support measures totalling 1.7% of GDP. Most of this comprises incentives for banks to lend to struggling firms, rather than fiscal stimulus. The People’s Bank has also... 24th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) The small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI in May suggests that activity is holding up better than we had feared. But the services rebound is likely to run out of steam amid high inflation and the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2022) While the flash manufacturing PMI was little changed in May, the details suggest that supply shortages worsened yet again, weighing on output and lifting prices. 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Can we trust the PMIs after their undue optimism in Q1? The PMI surveys gave an overly optimistic steer of GDP growth in advanced economies in Q1. This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of COVID restrictions, all of... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed to 3.1% y/y in Q1 as robust growth in the non-oil sector was more than offset by a slump in the oil sector. Looser fiscal policy ahead of elections in early 2023 will... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The Ifo survey for May suggests that activity in Germany may be holding up a little better than we had feared. But the headline Business Climate Index is still consistent with GDP contracting in year... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q2 and the effects of the war in Ukraine will remain a key headwind over the coming months. That said, we... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
