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China Drop-In: How strong is the post-lockdown Chinese recovery?

China’s Q1 “data dump” on 18th April will provide the broadest take so far of the economy’s performance following the end of zero-COVID restrictions.

Our China team held an online briefing shortly after the NBS release to discuss the quarterly GDP and March retail sales, investment and production numbers and give their assessment on whether growth is likely to exceed, meet or disappoint 2023 expectations.

Drawing on their latest quarterly Economic Outlook, the team answered client questions as they addressed key issues, including:

  • Whether the best of the recovery still lies ahead or if it has already passed.
  • What policymakers are signalling about their stance over the rest of this year and implications for financial markets.
  • Whether investors should still be nervous about common prosperity, the leadership’s approach to private sector regulation, and the property sector.  
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