Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Syria after Assad

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift...

9th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls

The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode

Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

How to think about US tariffs on oil imports

This is an updated version of a report originally published on 27th November, 2024. US tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico would probably result in lower oil output in Canada and Mexico and...

27th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a...

27th November 2024 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow...

27th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB rate cuts, Nigeria’s optimistic budget

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) struck an optimistic tone when it cut its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% this week and we expect more easing from here. But a potential lowering of the inflation...

22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war

With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation...

21st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The potential losers if AGOA is removed

US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact...

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa

A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus

Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read