Commodities Update What are the next steps for OPEC+? We suspect that OPEC+ will have to take a break before unwinding the next layer of voluntary cuts or otherwise face a ballooning surplus in the oil market. Our base case is that the group will begin... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2025, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the economy grew by 2.1% q/q, an improvement on the 1.1% expansion recorded in the first quarter, largely on the back of the unwinding of oil... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: China “Mega Dam” context; tweaked OPEC assumptions China’s new “Mega Dam” project will obviously require huge amounts of raw material and will generate more renewable electricity than most countries. However, anyone hoping that the project will make a... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How quickly have OPEC+ been increasing output? Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jul. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Drop–In: US intervention in Venezuela – Regional and global economic implications 5th January 2026, 3:00PM GMT The weekend's stunning events in Venezuela have raised urgent questions for the Latin American and global economies.
Event Drop-In: War in the Middle East – Macro and market update 9th March 2026, 1:00PM GMT How much of a threat do surging energy prices pose to the global economic outlook? How high could oil and gas prices rise?
Event Commodities Drop-In: Gold at record highs, oil under pressure, OPEC in question 17th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Gold prices continue to set record highs, oil remains under downward pressure, and OPEC+ is facing renewed questions about its long-term cohesion.
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Oil market is slightly parched at best; clarity on copper tariffs The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
