Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: China “Mega Dam” context; tweaked OPEC assumptions China’s new “Mega Dam” project will obviously require huge amounts of raw material and will generate more renewable electricity than most countries. However, anyone hoping that the project will make a... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How quickly have OPEC+ been increasing output? Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jul. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Oil market is slightly parched at best; clarity on copper tariffs The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s reform push, OPEC+ decision, Saudi real estate The delay to Egypt’s IMF review is not too concerning for the country’s balance of payments, but it underscores the difficulty of successfully achieving the goals of the privatisation drive. Elsewhere... 10th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Oil, copper and global macro drivers 1752760800 From OPEC+ pumping in ever-greater volumes to Donald Trump threatening 50% tariffs on copper, the near-term commodity outlook is being reshaped by both supply moves and political risk.
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: GNU anniversary, Kenya protests, Angola IMF loan The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
