Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to press ahead; oil traders look on bright side of life OPEC+ looks set to agree on another hike in output quotas this weekend. But the resetting of members’ baseline quotas promises to bring internal tensions and the erosion of cohesion within the group... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: lower US tariffs, but China will be the key partner Sub-Saharan Africa has come out of the latest round of US tariffs in a better position relative both to last year and to many other EMs. That will provide opportunities for some countries. But even so... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Our thoughts on oil’s paper-physical market disconnect Oil prices have fallen back on net this week even though shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, which has prompted questions about the disconnect between paper and physical... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi nuclear deal, Trump and Iran up the ante The US-Saudi nuclear deal announced this week is a sign that Washington is trying to shore up ties with the Gulf states, which have been fraying due to the Iran war. The conflict itself has escalated... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China can’t bail out the global oil market forever The sharp reduction in China’s crude imports has been a key factor keeping a lid on global oil prices, and we suspect that it can sustain historically low imports for many more months. However, this... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and Nigeria rate meetings, Angola’s large cut South Africa’s central bank is likely to hike rates again next week, but with inflation stabilising and underlying pressures relatively soft, we think this will be the last in the cycle. Nigeria... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Indirect effects of energy prices still absent The rise in energy prices this month means that, rather than falling in July as seemed likely a fortnight ago, euro-zone inflation now looks set to remain unchanged at 2.8%. But the absence so far of... 17th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Back to square one in the oil market At this stage, we still consider that the escalation in the war between the US and Iran is consistent with our baseline view that the recovery in oil flows would be bumpy and punctuated by flare-ups... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB rates on hold despite higher oil prices It is highly likely that the ECB Governing Council will leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. Although energy prices have risen sharply in the past few weeks, they remain lower than in... 16th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Back to the future The renewed attacks by the US and Iran risk prolonging the Gulf economies' downturns by pushing back recoveries in oil output and in non-oil sectors. On top of this, the risk of disruptions to... 16th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
