Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (May 2025)

OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in...

8th May 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period...

8th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

New (lower) oil price forecasts

Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently...

6th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan?

This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We...

2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes

Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended...

2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot

Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But...

1st May 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't...

1st May 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 ‘25, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q1 GDP showed that the Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q , translating into a year-on-year increase of just 2.7% to kick off the year. But with revisions and rebases...

1st May 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil supply concerns retake the reins

While various tariff-related carveouts have helped to ease concerns about some of the most acute tail-risks facing global oil demand, support for benchmark prices is being eroded by renewed concerns...

25th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Expectations for oil demand still too strong

The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though those forecasts still appear overly rosy. Our base...

17th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment

OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates

The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Tariffs add to existing oil demand woes

The escalation of the US-China trade war continued to buffet commodity prices this week. While the final shape of trade policy remains uncertain, demand shocks in the world’s two largest oil consumers...

11th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices?

President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external...

10th April 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (April 2025)

Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be...

10th April 2025 · 1 min read