Global Economics Update How to think about AI investment The surge in AI investment has so far been more apparent in company reports of nominal CapEx than in real investment in the wider economy. But the latter impact is growing. And while individual... 12th November 2025 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia poised to reap benefits from AI boom Australian imports of automatic data processing machines are growing at a breakneck pace, driven by the rapid expansion of data centre construction. We believe the AI revolution will continue to... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Arabia’s FII: PIF and AI dominate the headlines Comments at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia this week suggest that the Public Investment Fund will take a step back from driving investment in the Kingdom, paving the way for greater... 30th October 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China's Five-Year Plan: Staying the course on industrial policy China’s leadership has just wrapped up a closed-door meeting to discuss the upcoming Five-Year Plan. The message from the post-meeting communique is one of policy continuity, with technological... 23rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2025) Headline GDP growth fell to its lowest in a year last quarter. But we think the figures still overstate the pace of economic expansion by at least 1.0%-pts. The September activity data were mixed –... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Focus CBAM – which economies could be hit hardest? The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) extends the EU’s carbon pricing mechanism to the rest of the world through what is essentially a ‘carbon tariff’. Many emerging markets have opposed... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ tilt points to October rate hike While BoJ Governor Ueda acknowledged that Japan’s economy has so far shrugged off the impact of higher US tariffs, he warned that downside risks persist. Nonetheless, with the Governor admitting that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 25) The latest Tankan survey confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and supports our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle this month. 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Aug) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est & Annual Revision) The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual revision, Q2... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi foreign investment report, OPEC+ decision Media reports picked up on data published by Saudi Arabia this week which showed that 2024 was a record year for foreign direct investment inflows. But this didn’t take account of the fact that there... 11th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export resilience is a symptom of domestic weakness We are re-sending this Weekly due to a technical error. Apologies for any inconvenience caused. Policymakers in China seem more concerned about the overcapacity problem than the trade war with the US... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
