Economy ‘likely to shrink’ as budget gloom spreads Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “With the economy having grown at the snail’s pace of just 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, such falls in business confidence increase the... 9th December 2024 · The Times
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone investment growth to remain weak Euro-zone investment has been weak since the pandemic. And despite the recent downward revision to our ECB interest rate forecasts, we don’t think it will pick up substantially, given the sluggish... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024) The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put... 19th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf? The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry will continue to struggle A large part of the decline in euro-zone industry over recent years shown by the monthly data appears to be due to mismeasurement. Nevertheless, the sector is struggling with a loss of international... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2024) Although activity likely bottomed out last quarter, the ongoing weakness in private demand raises the risk that the RBA will cut rates sooner rather than later. 4th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The bigger than expected 9.9% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a massive rebound in aircraft orders. Excluding transport, core orders fell by 0.2% m/m in July, while... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Savings problem to weigh on Colombia’s prospects The prevailing view that, over the medium term, Colombia will maintain its position as Latin America’s fastest-growing major economy looks overly optimistic in light of the collapse in its savings and... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
