Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the problem of deposit dollarisation The growing prevalence of foreign currency deposits in Turkey’s banking sector is symptomatic of the country’s long-standing inflation problem. Unless the central bank breaks with the past and brings... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, easing cycle to start in June The hawkish tone of the Turkish central bank’s recent communications meant that a rate cut was never likely at today’s meeting. But with inflation set to fall further in the coming months and the... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lira still vulnerable to swings in risk appetite The improvement in Turkey’s current account position means the lira no longer looks fundamentally misaligned, but the recent period of stability won’t last. While a repeat of last year’s currency... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE core inflation rising, CBRT considering backdoor easing? Data released this week showing a pick-up in core inflation in Hungary and the Czech Republic support our view that, unless the activity figures take a sharp turn for the worse, central banks in both... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Dec.) The bigger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in December adds to the evidence that the economy performed terribly in the final quarter of last year. We think that GDP may have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, but easing cycle not far away The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold suggests that policymakers may have been unnerved by the recent wobble in the lira. But with inflation likely to ease further, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what can we learn from past easing cycles? Past experience suggests that the macroeconomic conditions are now in place for the Turkish MPC to start reversing last year’s monetary tightening. We expect the one-week repo rate to be cut by 50bp... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT to loosen policy, rapid CEE growth unlikely to last Further evidence this week that the Turkish economy is in the midst of a severe recession adds to the reasons to expect that the MPC will cut interest rates next week. Meanwhile, another batch of... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
