Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish fiscal plans, Turkish economy past the worst Plans outlined by Poland’s government this week confirmed that fiscal policy will be loosened significantly this year and that there will be more scope for stimulus in 2020 than we had previously... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkish inflation was stable at 19.7% y/y in March and, while we expect it to resume its downward trend in the coming months, in the near-term at least monetary policy will remain tight to support the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks the weakest link during market stress The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets has raised external borrowing costs, making it more difficult to roll over the country’s large external debt burden. The risks are largest in the banking... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: financial conditions tighten sharply The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground, but financial conditions remain much tighter than they were at the start of last week and point to continued weakness in domestic demand. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira back in the firing line The sell-off in the Turkish lira late last week provided a timely reminder that many of the factors that drove last year’s currency crisis – including geopolitical tensions and concerns about the... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for January suggest that the worst of the recession has passed. That said, the recovery is likely to slow-going and our forecast for GDP... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the problem of deposit dollarisation The growing prevalence of foreign currency deposits in Turkey’s banking sector is symptomatic of the country’s long-standing inflation problem. Unless the central bank breaks with the past and brings... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, easing cycle to start in June The hawkish tone of the Turkish central bank’s recent communications meant that a rate cut was never likely at today’s meeting. But with inflation set to fall further in the coming months and the... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lira still vulnerable to swings in risk appetite The improvement in Turkey’s current account position means the lira no longer looks fundamentally misaligned, but the recent period of stability won’t last. While a repeat of last year’s currency... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE core inflation rising, CBRT considering backdoor easing? Data released this week showing a pick-up in core inflation in Hungary and the Czech Republic support our view that, unless the activity figures take a sharp turn for the worse, central banks in both... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
