Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) The Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for November were a mixed bag but, on balance, suggest that the economy gathered pace in Q4. Looser policy means that we think the economy... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paltry office rental growth in Turkey Despite a weaker lira, Istanbul prime office rents have, perhaps surprisingly, held up in the last two years. We expect them to hold steady over the next two years, but beyond 2021, we forecast... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% q/q in Q3 but the lagged effects of policy loosening mean that the recovery is likely to gather pace over the next few quarters. The authorities’... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economic recovery has continued and we think that year-on-year growth could reach as high as 5-6% in Q4 and early 2020. But policy... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production in September suggests that the economy ended Q3 on a firmer footing and more timely evidence points to a further recovery in the coming months. The economy... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks The recent pick-up in bank lending in Turkey probably has further to run over the coming months, which will provide some support to the economic recovery. But the pace and composition of new lending... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment the weak spot in Turkey’s recovery Turkey’s economy has made a strong recovery from its recession last year, but investment has continued to fall and is unlikely to make a quick turnaround over the next couple of years. 31st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020 September’s plunge in inflation alongside the removal of US sanctions gave the Turkish central bank the green light to deliver another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and the easing cycle... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and sanctions: the calm before the storm? Turkey’s financial markets have taken the US sanctions imposed yesterday in their stride, but the threat of harsher measures in the context of the country’s weak external position could result in a... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the vulnerabilities in Turkey’s banking sector The growing threat of sanctions on Turkey in relation to its recent incursion into Syria have already put significant downward pressure on Turkish financial assets and fragilities in the banking... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in August is likely to prove a bump in the road, with more timely survey evidence pointing to a recovery over the coming months. That... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the latest sanctions threat The prospect of Turkish military action in Syria has again raised the spectre of US sanctions. While these would probably be on the soft end of the spectrum, Turkey’s poor external position means that... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
