Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 15.6% y/y in February, is likely to mark the peak and we expect inflation to fall steadily over the next six months or so. But... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2020) Turkey’s economy continued to recover in Q4 2020 and was one of the few economies around the world to grow over last year as a whole. But there are signs that activity faltered at the tail end of the... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBRT suggests Turkish lira may appreciate further The hawkish statement accompanying today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 17.0% supports our view that the rally in the lira has further to run... 18th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds fire amid lira rally, faltering economy Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting as concerns about the faltering economic recovery took priority. But the hawkish tone on... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a combination of a... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 14.6% y/y in December, is unlikely to be enough to push the central bank (CBRT) towards additional monetary tightening. Even so, with the CBRT... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkish retail property roasted? The recent re-introduction of weekend curfews and the announced four-day new year lockdown suggest that the struggles of the retail sector will continue into 2021. And despite the improving outlook... 22nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy recorded a strong 15.6% q/q rebound in Q3 from its collapse in Q2, but lingering weakness in the tourism sector as well as the recent tightening of both virus containment measures and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for September add to the evidence the recovery was strong over Q3, although prolonged weakness in the tourism sector and the recent sharp... 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver President Erdogan’s latest comments suggest that the recent changes in Turkey’s economic management team may herald a shift back to orthodox policymaking. If these developments are backed up by a... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Make or break time for Turkey The sacking of Turkey’s central bank governor, as well as the (possible) departure of Finance Minister and President Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, has prompted a rally in local financial... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure builds on CBRT, currency crisis fears grow The Turkish lira has continued to fall sharply over the past couple of days and pressure is mounting on the central bank (CBRT) to deliver aggressive policy rate hikes at the MPC meeting later this... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
