Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Putting risky asset valuations into context This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as... 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July suggest that, after putting in a better-than-expected performance in Q2, the economy made a soft start to Q3. 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound looks unconvincing After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat... 10th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM assets & the risk of higher inflation We think that there is a risk of a period of moderately higher inflation in some major emerging markets (EMs) over the coming years. If that came to pass, it would probably be bad news for local... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation reading of 19.3% y/y in August doesn’t rule out the start of an easing cycle later this year. However, we now only see scope for an interest rate cut at... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account balances: where do the risks lie? With external positions in decent shape in most major EMs, the macroeconomic fallout from any tightening of external financing conditions should be limited. But there are a handful of EMs which look... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (August) The PMIs for August suggest that manufacturing conditions have softened in Q3 as output and new orders fell further from their recent highs. More than anything, it looks like conditions are... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2021) A strong rebound from May’s three-week lockdown meant that Turkey’s economy managed to expand by 0.9% q/q over Q2 as a whole and the early signs are that it carried this momentum into Q3. Robust... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
